Why the AP government will not fall

Hyderabad: As Andhra Pradesh waits for the outcome of the crucial by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats, the big debate on whether or not the Kiran Kumar Reddy government will survive has started. If at all the government survives, the question is "for how long?" Given the ground realities, the government is unlikely to fall anytime soon.  Not that dislodging the government is an impossible or difficult task, given the precarious position it is in. The Congress' strength in the 294-member Assembly is a fragile 151 right now and at least a handful of its legislators are expected to cross over to the YSR Congress after the by-poll results are out. The government can at best count on the support of the seven-member Majlis-e-Itehadul Muslimeen but that looks a distant possibility as relations between the two soured in recent times. Still, the government will not fall. The reason is plain and not too far to seek. The principal opposition Telugu Desam Party, which alone could cause the government to fall in any case, is a battered force and is not battle-fit to force a mid-term election.  And, by the way, no one wants a mid-term poll anytime soon. Apart from political reasons, the vulgar display of money power in the just-concluded by-elections has left every party in shocking dismay, so much so that they are literally scared of facing any major election in the immediate future. The by-poll results may leave the YSR Congress, the main challenger to the Kiran Kumar regime, buoyant and tempt it to go for the kill. But the YSRC is in a predicament of its own, what with the party chief Y S Jaganmohan Reddy in jail and whether the by-poll magic would work in the mid-term election that will indeed be the actual do-or-die battle for it. Jagan's plans of toppling the government will work only if the TDP plays along but that will be improbable given the current political dynamics in the state.  But Jagan will certainly not wait till 2014 to realise his dream and will seek an early opportunity to strike. He will again be on the prowl as soon as he gets out of the jail. His government may survive for now but the worst time for Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy will continue in every manner. His aides always say Kiran is "enjoying" his stint but from now on he will only be ruing.  There is no alternative for him, in every sense.