Why the AP government will not fall

Hyderabad: As Andhra Pradesh waits for the outcome of the crucial by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats, the big debate on whether or not the Kiran Kumar Reddy government will survive has started. If at all the government survives, the question is "for how long?" Given the ground realities, the government is unlikely to fall anytime soon.  Not that dislodging the government is an impossible or difficult task, given the precarious position it is in. The Congress' strength in the 294-member Assembly is a fragile 151 right now and at least a handful of its legislators are expected to cross over to the YSR Congress after the by-poll results are out. The government can at best count on the support of the seven-member Majlis-e-Itehadul Muslimeen but that looks a distant possibility as relations between the two soured in recent times. Still, the government will not fall. The reason is plain and not too far to seek. The principal opposition Telugu Desam Party, which alone could cause the government to fall in any case, is a battered force and is not battle-fit to force a mid-term election.  And, by the way, no one wants a mid-term poll anytime soon. Apart from political reasons, the vulgar display of money power in the just-concluded by-elections has left every party in shocking dismay, so much so that they are literally scared of facing any major election in the immediate future. The by-poll results may leave the YSR Congress, the main challenger to the Kiran Kumar regime, buoyant and tempt it to go for the kill. But the YSRC is in a predicament of its own, what with the party chief Y S Jaganmohan Reddy in jail and whether the by-poll magic would work in the mid-term election that will indeed be the actual do-or-die battle for it. Jagan's plans of toppling the government will work only if the TDP plays along but that will be improbable given the current political dynamics in the state.  But Jagan will certainly not wait till 2014 to realise his dream and will seek an early opportunity to strike. He will again be on the prowl as soon as he gets out of the jail. His government may survive for now but the worst time for Chief Minister Kiran Kumar Reddy will continue in every manner. His aides always say Kiran is "enjoying" his stint but from now on he will only be ruing.  There is no alternative for him, in every sense.

Chiranjeevi's prestige at stake in Tirupati

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: When Chiranjeevi's name was being considered for a Rajya Sabha seat from Andhra Pradesh in March this year, Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy was said to have objected to it telling the party high command that winning the eventual by-election in Tirupati could be a difficult task for the Congress.

Kiran's objection was overruled, Chiranjeevi became an MP and vacated the Tirupati Assembly seat.

Now, Kiran's fears are coming true as the ruling party is facing rough weather in the temple-town.

It will be humiliating for the Chief Minister if the Congress loses the Tirupati seat in the June 12 by-election as it falls in his native Chittoor district.

But, it will be a total loss of face for Chiranjeevi himself as he won the seat in the 2009 as the Praja Rajyam Party chief. He was elevated to the Rajya Sabha as part of his PRP's merger deal with the Congress and the onus would be on him to ensure the party's victory in the seat he held till recently.

Former chairman of Tirumala Tirupati Devasthanams B Karunakar Reddy, who lost to Chiranjeevi by a margin of 10,800 votes in 2009 as Congress nominee, is now in fray as the YSR Congress candidate. Going by the current trend that is apparently favouring the YSR Congress in the state, Karunakar Reddy is the front-runner in the by-election race, leaving the Congress camp worried.

Pitifully, the ruling party is banking almost solely on the caste factor to win the Tirupati seat but the Telugu Desam Party will surely dent its chances, if any. 

For, TDP candidate Ch Krishna Murthy belongs to the same community as Congress' Venkata Ramana. Both are former legislators from Tirupati and have sizeable support within their caste. Chiranjeevi is playing the caste card to see that votes of the community -- to which he too belongs -- fall into the Congress' kitty.

He has also promised not to abandon Tirupati and spend his MPLAD funds on the constituency development.

The split in the caste votes between TDP and Congress will be an added benefit for YSRC while it has the advantage of its own caste vote bank. 

Given his previous stint as TTD chairman, YSRC's Karunakar can also count on the support of the temple employees and their families who form a major chunk of the electorate in Tirupati.

Karunakar is hoping to take sweet revenge on Chiranjeevi and have the last laugh this time.

The Parakal 'pareshani' for TRS

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: The Telangana Rashtra Samiti is fighting the by-election for Parakal Assembly constituency as if it will become extinct if it does not win the seat.
The Bharatiya Janata Party is giving the TRS a run for its money in Parakal after having made the latter bite the dust in the by-election in Mahbubnagar in March this year.
The BJP is confident that the Mahbubnagar result will repeat in Parakal but the TRS is bent on preventing it as the former's victory will threaten its existence as the sole torch-bearer of the statehood movement.

Field level reports indicate that the BJP gained a lot of ground in Parakal over the last few days causing a significant dent to TRS.

That almost all the top leadership of the party has been camping in Parakal for the past many days and closely managing the campaign reflects the TRS' jitteriness.
Parakal is the lone constituency in Telangana region facing by-election on June 12 out of the 18 Assembly segments in Andhra Pradesh.
Though the ruling Congress and the main opposition Telugu Desam Party too are in the fray in Parakal, the fight is essentially between TRS, BJP and YSR Congress.
For the YSRC this is the first electoral test in Telanagana where it is yet to make a mark, unlike in Andhra-Rayalaseema regions where it is emerging as a formidable political force.
Incumbent Konda Surekha was disqualified as member of the Assembly in March for voting against the Congress on the no-confidence motion in December last, necessitating the by-poll.
Surekha, one of the staunch supporters of YSRC president Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, however claimed that she "sacrificed" her post for the sake of Telangana but none is ready to buy it.
As such, Surekha is facing an uphill task on her home turf as every election in Telangana region has been fought and won only on the statehood "sentiment" in recent years.
The TRS benefited heavily from this sentiment and won all the by-elections in Telangana since 2010 till the BJP gave it a shock in Mahbubnagar. Things are not that rosy for the TRS in Parakal this time as the BJP is able to convince people of the region that only a national party could deliver a separate state and not a regional outfit.
As the current trends indicate, the "Jagan sentiment" may not work in Parakal, making the task tougher for Surekha. Now, she is pinning hopes on the caste equations in the constituency to romp home but the Telangana factor could be the biggest dampener for her.
The fight between BJP and TRS has left the other pro-Telangana forces divided on their support. The so-called Joint Action Committee that exists more on paper has pledged its support to TRS while a major section of employees is rallying behind BJP.
G Kishan Reddy, BJP state president, says his party was "racing ahead" in Parakal. "I am confident of a win. Palamur (Mahbubnagar) result will repeat in Parakal," Kishan said, adding that regional parties could not achieve statehood for Telangana.
TRS K Chandrasekhar Rao is employing old tricks to woo voters. "I have concrete information that Sonia Gandhi will grant Telangana in three months. So vote for TRS," he tells people.
Unfortunately for KCR, nobody is taking his claims seriously going by his similar utterances umpteen times in the past.
There is nothing to write about Congress and TDP as far as Parakal is concerned, except that they are fighting for the fourth and fifth places in the by-poll.

THE POWER GAME IN AP

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Andhra Pradesh is facing an unprecedented "power" crisis in many a sense.

But, as the state is just six days away from make-or-break by-elections (to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly constituencies), power of a different kind is in vulgar display -- word power and money power.

All this is clearly with an eye on the "seat of power" in the next general elections.

As the stakes are too high in the by-elections, being touted as the "semi-finals" before the next general elections, all the main contenders are sparing no effort to flaunt their power in every way.

On the streets, and through the media, leaders of the three main parties -- Congress, Telugu Desam and YSR Congress -- are using their word power to spew venom at their rivals. "Decency" is, of course, the one word missing from their vocabulary as they are exchanging high-pitched verbal volleys in a most bizarre game.

Behind the scenes, workers of these parties are quietly going about their 'work' -- doling out 'inducements' in 'cash and kind' to the voters.

It was a jaw-dropping experience for Election Commission authorities in the state as they got to seize cash, gold, silver and other items on an "unprecedented" scale in the 12 districts facing by-elections, ever since the poll schedule was announced.

A sum of Rs 32 crore in unaccounted for cash, about 29 kgs of gold and 13 kg of silver has been "seized" so far, making it by-far the biggest 'catch' in any election in the state.

In the cash-rich Godavari districts, a particular party has reportedly wanted to go on a gold distribution spree to woo the women voters in particular but its plans nipped in the bud when EC authorities got wind of it and seized ornaments from the manufacturer.

The Telugu Desam Party complained to the EC that the YSR Congress candidate in Ongole has been distributing gold ornaments like ear-rings and nose studs apart from sarees to women voters.

In another case, the EC authorities seized 90 "sports bikes" in Prakasam district while there are reports that cell phones are being distributed in some other constituencies.

The YSR Congress is also said to be luring women members of self-help groups in villages with the promise of "funds transfer" following which the TDP alerted the EC asking it to keep a tab on the bank accounts of SHGs.

The ruling Congress, on the other hand, is wielding its authority to link the 'bank linkage' for SHG loans to the outcome of the by-elections in the respective constituencies, implying that the women groups may not get loans if the party loses.

While this is one part of the story, the other relates to the large-scale betting on the prospects of different parties in various constituencies. Interestingly, the contesting candidates themselves are involved in the betting in certain constituencies where the by-election has become a matter of personal prestige as well. The trend of contesting candidates indulging in betting, on their own prospects, began in the state in 2009 in some particular constituencies. 

Ever since, the trend has apparently been spreading.

'TRAITS' OF Y S JAGANMOHAN REDDY

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: If there is one reason that made Y S Jaganmohan Reddy an immensely popular political leader in Andhra Pradesh right now, it’s his open defiance of Sonia Gandhi.
He remained loyal to her only to the extent that his “self-respect” was not impinged upon.
Once the Congress boss sought to encroach on what he believed was his “personal territory”, Jagan rebelled with such audacity and walked out on Sonia that it catapulted him into instant stardom on the state’s political horizon.
His dramatic rise has been the Congress’ fall in a state that helped the grand old party grab power at the Centre for two consecutive terms since 2004.
In 2004, if Congress rose like a phoenix to capture power in Andhra Pradesh, it was singularly due to Y S Rajasekhara Reddy and it was the same man who ensured a second consecutive term in 2009.
The Congress could never deny this, though now it is unabashedly projecting the late YSR as a corrupt leader. Whether YSR was corrupt or not could be debatable.
But this is precisely an other factor that is contributing to Jagan’s political rise – built on his late father’s legacy.
The third factor working in Jagan’s favour is the “credibility crisis” that the principal opposition Telugu Desam Party’s chief N Chandrababu Naidu is stuck in.
The leadership vacuum in the Congress, after YSR’s tragic death, has come as a blessing in disguise for the 39-year-old leader whose clear target is the Chief Minister’s post.
He succeeded in striking a positive chord with common people largely based on the goodwill that his late father earned for himself through a slew of “welfare” programmes.
Jagan merely reminds people of what all his father did for them as Chief Minister and promises to continue the same trend, unlike the current Congress government that had “watered down” each and every scheme “on one pretext or the other.”
People take his word, for they believe Jagan will be as steadfast as his father in implementing what all he promised. 
Of course, there are certain negative attributes to Jagan, those who know him very closely say.
He is seen essentially as a "corporate politician", full of "arrogance of money" and "lust for power."
He is "diametrically opposite" to his father, who had a lot of grace and credibility.
"This guy doesn't have respect or regard for elders, seniors, comrades or friends," is how Jagan is analysed by those who have been with him very closely.
"He is much like his late grandfather Y S Raja Reddy," they add, implying that Jagan too has a "criminal mindset."
These things apart, the biggest stumbling block for Jagan in reaching his goal (CM's chair) could be the Telangana issue. He is certainly a strong force in Andhra-Rayalaseema regions but not in Telangana.
Unless the YSR Congress takes a clear stand on the statehood issue, Jagan may not make inroads in Telangana and that could dampen his prospects.
The Telangana region alone has 119 seats in the 294-member AP Assembly and, thus, Jagan's fortunes ultimately rest on his stand on the statehood demand.

CONGRESS GETS KNOCKED OFF

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: The ruling Congress in Andhra Pradesh has been knocked off the high moral ground it was taking on corruption for the past eight years. 

The arrest of state Excise and Prohibition Minister Mopidevi Venkata Ramana, in connection with the disproportionate assets case against Kadapa MP Y S Jaganmohan Reddy, has left the Kiran Kumar Reddy government shaken. 

There are jitters in the government as well as the Congress party what with some other ministers facing the prospect of arrest over their alleged wrongdoings in relation to the same case. State Home Minister P Sabita Indra Reddy, Roads and Buildings Minister Dharmana Prasada Rao, Information Technology Minister Ponnala Lakshmaiah, Major Industries Minister J Geeta Reddy and Agriculture Minister Kanna Lakshminarayana are also under the CBI scanner in the Jagan case.

The timing of all this couldn’t have been worse for the Congress as it is facing a biggest challenge in the form of by-elections to one Lok Sabha and 18 Assembly seats on June 12.

Mopidevi, a three-time MLA from Guntur district belonging to fishermen community, earned the dubious distinction of being the first incumbent minister to be arrested in the state on charges of corruption. As he reached the CBI's temporary office for a further round of questioning, Mopidevi remained defiant. "I have done no wrong and there is no question of my resignation from the post," he asserted.

But, after the inevitable happened, Mopidevi promptly sent his resignation letter to the Chief Minister through a friend, which was in turn forwarded to the state Governor for approval.

All these years, the Congress had been maintaining that there was nothing amiss in its rule (under Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, K Rosaiah and now Kiran Kumar) even as opposition parties prepared a dossier on the various corruption scandals that rocked the state since May 2004.

Political expediency -- following the exit of Jagan from the party, the subsequent investigation by the CBI into various dubious deals and the findings of CAG -- forced the government as well as the Congress in recent days to acknowledge that certain illicit acts did happen (when YSR was at the helm).

Right from the Chief Minister to the Pradesh Congress Committee president and other leaders (read ministers), however, have been desperately trying to wash their hands off pleading "we are not responsible for what all happened 'behind the curtains.'"

As battle lines are drawn for by-elections in the state, Kiran Kumar and his Cabinet colleagues virtually started endorsing the opposition allegations that the late Chief Minister YSR was primarily responsible for the unbridled corruption and helped his son Jagan amass "thousands of crores of rupees" through dubious means.

Obviously, the Congress' main target was Jagan and his fledgling YSR Congress that has emerged as the biggest political threat to the ruling party.

But the whole thing seems to be turning a full circle and catching even the Congress leaders in the swirl.

Telugu Desam in an existential crisis

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: The Telugu Desam Party's citadel is crumbling. 

The party that ruled Andhra Pradesh for about 16 years is now facing the threat of "existential crisis" in the Telangana region, once considered its stronghold.

Reason: it's ambivalent stand on the separate statehood demand.

The TDP and its chief N Chandrababu Naidu's repeated assertions that "we are not against Telangana" have failed to win confidence of the people.

Results of by-elections to 18 Assembly constituencies -- that were fought solely on the Telangana plank -- in the region in 2010 and now, hold mirror to the fact that people had totally rejected the TDP as the principal opposition could not win a single seat.

In the 2009 elections, the TDP managed to win 39 out of the 119 Assembly seats in Telangana as part of the "Grand Alliance" with the TRS and the Left.

Subsequently, five MLAs quit the party of which four joined the TRS and won the by-elections. The other legislator -- Nagam Janardhana Reddy -- too emerged victorious as an Independent in the bypoll now.

That the party could not win deposit in at least 15 seats in all these by-elections depicts its pathetic position. 

There is no love lost for Telangana Rashtra Samiti president K Chandrasekhar Rao among the people of the region but singularly targeting and branding him as the villain of Telangana did not help the TDP in any way, particularly in the current round of bypolls in six segments. 

The TDP leaders, who launched a separate Telangana Forum within the party, played every trick in their bag to showcase that they indeed were the real "warriors" for statehood but to no avail.

Chandrababu's "two eyes" theory on Telangana and Andhra-Rayalaseema too did not cut any ice with people here.

On the contrary, KCR succeeded in making people believe that it was only because of Chandrababu Naidu that the Centre went back on its announcement on creation of a separate state.

That, in a way, sealed the TDP's fate.

The TDP chief, however, is not ready to buy any arguments against his party. "Our situation improved considerably compared to the past (by-elections). We could convince people to some extent on our party's stand on Telangana," Chandrababu claimed, in reaction to the polls results.

The misery for TDP may not end with Telangana as it faces yet another formidable challenge in the by-elections to 18 Assembly and one Lok Sabha seat in Andhra-Rayalaseema in the next few months.

Like the TRS in Telangana, the fledgling YSR Congress of Kadapa MP Y S Jaganmohan Reddy could spell doom for the TDP, in the by-elections to begin with.

Chandrababu doesn't miss any chance to lament that he could not return to power in 2009 only because of the Praja Rajyam Party (which no more exists). 

He could now blame the TRS and later the YSRC for his continued political travails.