'HUNG' looks inevitable in Andhra Pradesh

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: A “hung” Assembly looks inevitable for the first time in Andhra Pradesh.
Voters of the state have given their verdict, now safely “reserved” in the electronic voting machines, which will be delivered on May 16. Going by the trends available after the two rounds of polling in the state on April 16 and 23, it is going to be a split verdict and no party or combine is expected to touch the magic figure of 148 on its own.
For the ruling Congress, it is going to be a major setback as it has clearly lost the mandate. According to the Congress’ own assessment, it will end up with a seat count of 120-128 at best. For the record, however, the party claims to be winning over 204 seats in the 294-member House.
Chiranjeevi’s Praja Rajyam Party will pocket just about 30-35 seats -- a sizeable number to decide who will rule the state next.
The TDP-TRS-CPI-CPM Grand Alliance is expected to emerge as the largest combine with 135-140 seats but will still fall short of the required simple majority.
Parties like the MIM, BJP and Lok Satta will share the balance seats, as per the trends available.
However, no party is ready to go by the trends. “The Grand Alliance will bag 200 seats,” TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu declared. If his claim comes true, the TDP alone should be bagging around 150 seats on its own, a simple majority with which it can ride back to power without any outside support. This, analysts feel, is a remote possibility.
While the Majlist Ittehadul-e-Muslimeen will retain its 2004 tally of five seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party may gain a few seats as compared to the previous election. Lok Satta Party of N Jayaprakash Narayan will also open its account for the first time.
“We are clearly heading for a hung Assembly. Eventually, it can either be a coalition government or a minority government with outside support. Who will manage to climb the throne will be interesting to watch, given the possible arithmetic,” one political analyst observed.
The ruling party lost heavily in Telangana region in the first phase of the elections. It also suffered a blow in Rayalaseema districts where the Telugu Desam Party has regained lost ground. In coastal Andhra region, the PRP put paid to the hopes of the Congress by eating into its votes in many districts. This worked to the TDP’s advantage where it is now set to improve its tally. It is in the coastal districts that the PRP also will make its mark.
The trends in the Assembly elections will have a bearing on the outcome of the Lok Sabha results as well where the TDP will significantly improve its tally from the previous five. The BJP, which drew a blank in 2004, is expected to bag at least two seats straightaway and may well end up with another couple. For the PRP, that wants to be a part of the “fourth front” at the Centre and play a “decisive role” in national politics as well, the current Lok Sabha polls will be a bitter pill. It is so hopelessly placed as far as Lok Sabha elections are concerned.