Andhra Pradesh heading for a hot poll

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: Elections-2009 will be by far the hottest in the history of Andhra Pradesh. For the first time, the state will witness a triangular contest between the ruling Congress, the “Grand Alliance” (of Telugu Desam Party-Telangana Rashtra Samiti-Communist Party of India (Marxist)-Communist Party of India) and the Praja Rajyam Party floated by Telugu Mega Star Chiranjeevi.
On paper, however, it will be a “multi-cornered” contest with other players like Bharatiya Janata Party and Lok Satta Party of bureaucrat-turned-politician N Jayaprakash Narayan in the fray.
But the impact of these two outfits will be not significant by any count and as such the fight will essentially be between Congress, Grand Alliance and Praja Rajyam Party.
The Congress is ready to fight the elections on the “development-welfare” plank while the Grand Alliance have a range of issues – ranging from corruption to Telangana – to attack the ruling party with. Chiranjeevi wants to do an “Obama” in Andhra Pradesh and is harping on the “change” mantra.
Andhra Pradesh could well decide who would form the next government in New Delhi. For the Congress, the stakes are too heavy. An impressive performance – an encore of 2004 – by the Congress here will put it in the driver’s seat even in New Delhi. By sending as many as 33 members to the Lok Sabha in 2004, Andhra Pradesh electorate enabled the Congress party to form a government at the Centre in the company of other political outfits.
But the Grand Alliance, which is aiming at forming the so-called “Third Alternative” government at the Centre, is bent on spoiling the chances of the ruling party by exposing the Congress primarily on the corruption issue apart from a host of other “failures.”
Equally bent is the PRP to mar the prospects of not only the Congress but also the Grand Alliance. On the face of it, the PRP may well give a tough fight to both the Congress and the Grand Alliance by splitting their votes in most pockets in the state but its aspirations may actually come a cropper if it fails to secure a common symbol for all its candidates. As things stand, the infant party – that solely banks on the charisma of Mega Star Chiranjeevi – is unlikely to get a common symbol and will have to make do with multiple symbols for its candidates. The most significant aspect of Elections-2009 will be the total isolation of the ruling Congress in the state. In 2004, the Left parties had aligned with the Congress while Telangana Rashtra Samiti was also part of the alliance that ousted N Chandrababu Naidu from power. TDP had only the Bharatiya Janata Party for company in 2004 but the combination could not outwit the Congress-Left-TRS combine.
The 2004 poll outcome makes for an interesting study. The Congress, which polled 38.56 per cent of the total valid votes, bagged 185 seats in the 294-member state Assembly while the TDP with a 37.59 per cent vote share could manage only 47 seats. The CPI got 1.53 per cent votes (six seats), CPM 1.84 per cent (nine seats) and the TRS 6.68 per cent (26 seats) while the BJP secured 2.63 per cent and just two seats. The Congress won 33 seats, TDP four, TRS two (down from five after the split and subsequent bye-elections) while CPI, CPM and MIM bagged one Lok Sabha seat each.
Elections-2009 will, however, be entirely different. The CPM, CPI and TRS have now crossed over to the TDP with the sole objective of dislodging the “corrupt” Congress. The BJP has none for company this time and is striving to rediscover itself in the state.
Here comes the PRP into play which could mar the Grand Alliance’s prospects as well as those of the ruling Congress. How much will the vote split be is hard to predict but at least in the coastal Andhra region and to some extent in Rayalaseema, Chiranjeevi's party could cast its spell. The PRP's impact is expected to be the maximum in East Godavari and West Godavari districts, which hitherto used to be the TDP's citadels. In north coastal Andhra too -- comprising Srikakulam, Vizianagaram and Visakhapatnam districts -- Chiranjeevi's party is likely to eat into the traditional TDP votes much to the comfort of the Congress. In the final analysis, this could prove to be the most decisive factor in determining who comes to power. Of course, the outcome in Telangana will also be crucial as the region has as many as 117 seats.
The Congress, however, is putting up a brave front saying no combination or force could prevent it from retaining power. "It will be a positive vote for the government, which is quite unprecedented. The slew of welfare measures, apart from the major development works including the construction of irrigation projects, will stand us in good stead," Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy boasts.
May 16 will be the Judgment Day for all of them.