Test of Jagan's political might

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: The time has come for "rebel leader" Y S Jaganmohan Reddy to prove his political might.
The Election Commission has set May 8 as the date for his first political battle as an independent leader.
For Jagan, who got elected to Lok Sabha on his political arangetram in 2009 as Congress candidate from Kadapa constituency, the very party is now the main rival.
Son of late Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, the industrialist-turned-politician quit the Congress as well as his Lok Sabha seat on November 29 last alleging that the party "humiliated" his family. His mother Vijayalakshmi too followed him and resigned from her Pulivendula MLA seat, causing the by-election in the two segments.
Political observers feel that a good show by Jagan in the by-elections will spell trouble for Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy as the rebel leader will try to go for the kill with the help of MLAs loyal to him.

When he quit the Congress in November last, Jagan’s group claimed he enjoyed the support of at least 36 MLAs in the 294-member AP Assembly, a number good enough to dislodge the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. Just a few days later, he claimed during an agitation programme in New Delhi that the Kiran Kumar government was surviving only “at my mercy.”

“I am doing a favour to the Congress by not pulling down its government in Andhra Pradesh,” he had claimed and maintained that he would let it continue its full term till 2014 as it came to power only because of his late father.

Political analysts are, however, unwilling to take Jagan’s claims on face value as they aver that he would not be so “politically imprudent” to wait on the sidelines for another three years.

As things stand, Jagan seems to be enjoying clear support of just a dozen Congress MLAs besides two each of Praja Rajyam Party and Telugu Desam. There, of course, are some fence-sitters who may jump the wall any way depending on the circumstances.

Jagan was to set up his "own party" but technical glitches spoiled his plans as an outfit by the name "YSR Congress" was already registered with the Election Commission. With no other option in sight, Jagan promptly joined the YSR Congress as an ordinary member and got "elected" as its president last month. He then announced the name of "his" party at a public meeting in Jaggampet in East Godavari district and followed it up with the unveiling of its tri-coloured flag on March 12 at his father's grave at Rajiv Knowledge Valley in Kadapa district.
For all practical purposes Jagan could not "formally launch" his political party as the model code of conduct was in place for the elections to Andhra Pradesh Legislative Council. He can't do it now either as the code remains in place for the by-elections as well.

Nevertheless, he will contest the by-election from Kadapa Lok Sabha constituency as YSR Congress party candidate and his mother Vijayalakshmi will be the party nominee from Pulivendula Assembly segment.

Jagan gave a shocker to the ruling party winning three of the nine Legislative Council seats in the recent elections from the Local Authorities Constituencies while marring its chances in two other. In fact, Congress MLAs loyal to him virtually defeated the ruling party’s nominee for the Council election from the Assembly quota on March 17 by voting in favour of Majlis party candidate, though he too was supported by the Congress.

Now, Jagan’s strength will be put to real test in the by-elections in his own fiefdom. The contest will be as much on YSR’s political legacy as well as on Jagan’s leadership while the sympathy factor too will come into play.