2010: Annus Horribilis in AP's political history

Desaraju Surya
HYDERABAD: Year 2010 has been an Annus Horribilis in the political history of Andhra Pradesh.
The political chaos that actually began towards the end of year 2009 ran through the whole of 2010 and, in fact, might continue to prevail even in 2011.
While the prime reason for this seemingly prolonging turbulence is the demand for and against the bifurcation of the state, the internal strife in the ruling Congress party has also been a large contributing factor.
The agitations for and against the division of Andhra Pradesh, which began in December 2009 and spilled into the first half of 2010, not only paralysed the state administration but also left the main
political parties in shambles.
The happenings within the Congress also left AP in a state of political uncertainty through the year as the ruling party failed in many ways than one in managing its own affairs. Governance, as a
result, became the biggest casualty, leaving common citizens disillusioned.
Disarray will only be a mild word to describe the state of Congress as it was forced to replace a “non-effective” Chief Minister (K Rosaiah) on one hand and contend with the virtual rebellion caused by former MP from Kadapa Y S Jaganmohan Reddy on the other.
The current Chief Minister Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy is virtually counting his days at the helm of affairs as Jagan is waiting for the opportune moment to dislodge the state government, though for public consumption he has promised to let it continue till 2014.
Son of former Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, Jagan’s first rebellious act was embarking on the Odarpu Yatra for consoling families of persons who died of shock or committed suicide following
his father’s death.
Jagan, in fact, used the controversial yatra for a show of strength and building a base for himself across the state, particularly in the Andhra-Rayalaseema regions. The huge response to his road shows proved that Jagan not only succeeded in his plans but also compounded the woes of the beleaguered Congress.
By already attracting close to 30 MLAs, half-a-dozen MLCs and about five Lok Sabha MPs of the Congress to his side, upon his exit from the party, Jagan has already sounded the warning bell for the Kiran Kumar government.
Come 2011, Jagan will launch his own political outfit with the main objective of decimating the Congress, which he quit in December. This may actually see many “fence-sitters” in the Congress jump on to his bandwagon, endangering the survival of the Kiran government.
Jagan apart, the Congress also faces uncertainty from within as the Telangana protagonists in the party too have openly declared a war if statehood is not granted for their region.
The cracks along the regional lines in the Congress that began appearing in December 2009 only widened in 2010 as the high command remained apathetic to the developments in the party.
The principal opposition Telugu Desam Party is not in a comfortable position either. The TDP too is split on regional lines with the Telangana leaders favouring a separate state while those from
Andhra-Rayalaseema opposing it.
TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu is unable to take a clear stand on the state division issue and is closely monitoring the happenings in the Congress so that he could devise his party’s strategy.
Though initially there was hope in the TDP circles about the party’s prospects brightening in the wake of Jagan’s exit from the Congress, the complete rout it faced in the by-elections in July in Telangana
has indeed become a cause for concern. With the TDP still vacillating over its stand on the statehood issue, there is scant hope of revival in its fortunes in the Telangana region that was always considered its citadel.
The separatist Telangana Rashtra Samiti, on the other hand, is riding high on the “sentiment” wave following its spectacular showing in the by-elections where it won all the 11 seats it contested.
In fact, 2010 saw the TRS fighting a do-or-die battle to achieve its sole objective – securing statehood for Telangana. It has taken the battle, with the help of other separatist forces, almost to a decisive
stage this year, so much so that the political future of Andhra Pradesh now hinges on the outcome of this battle.
Year 2010 could well be a forgettable one for actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi as his two-year-old Praja Rajyam Party headed nowhere.

By vouching for a united state, Chiranjeevi antagonised people of Telangana, so much so that his party has been reduced to nothing in the region. After more than 10 months, however, he started attracting some of his fans from Telangana back to his fold for re-building the PRP. But the PRP also seems to be stuck in an existential dilemma. It has done no good for itself by hob-nobbing with the ruling Congress and in fact lost its credibility by showing a desperation to join the government. Chiranjeevi’s proposed re-entry into the tinsel world fuelled speculation that he might indeed merge his outfit with the Congress sooner of later.

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s future literally hangs in the balance in AP. As things stand, the national party’s only hope lies in the creation of Telangana state where it could at least try to regain past glory, being an aggressive supporter of the statehood demand. At the same time, the pro-Telangana stand could prove to be its nemesis in Andhra-Rayalaseema regions where it once enjoyed considerable clout.

As the year 2010 draws to a close, Telangana indeed holds the key to the fortunes of the two main political parties – Congress and TDP – in the state. But each will remain strong only in any one of the two regions in any eventuality. Of course, Jagan is waiting in the wings to play spoilsport.

“What if!” is a puzzle that all the parties are now busy trying to crack, marching into Year 2011.