A make-believe budget for Andhra Pradesh

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Seeking to hide the real picture of the state’s precarious finances, Andhra Pradesh Finance Minister Aanam Ramanarayana Reddy presented yet another grandiose budget of Rs 1,28,542 crore for the 2011-12 financial year, projecting a revenue surplus of Rs 3,826 crore and a fiscal deficit of Rs 17,602 crore.

Neither were any state taxes enhanced nor any new schemes announced in the budget which was about Rs 15,000 crore more than last year’s estimate of Rs 1.13 lakh crore. This is the fourth consecutive year that the state’s budget has been pegged at over Rs one lakh crore, despite the actual realizations falling way short of the projections.

For a state that is virtually in penury because of various factors, including political turmoil, a budget of this size has raised many an eyebrow with the opposition terming it as “unjustified.”

Of the total projected expenditure in the ensuing fiscal, more than Rs 20,000 crore will go towards clearing old arrears for various schemes even as the state’s public debt shot up to Rs 1.41 lakh crore from 1.23 lakh crore last year. This is 23.62 per cent of the Gross State Domestic Product.

This was Ramanarayana Reddy’s maiden budget, which he presented at 11.43 am at the auspicious muhurtam set for the occasion, but amidst a din created by opposition members. Eleven MLAs belonging to TRS (6), CPI (4) and BJP (1) were suspended from the House for the day as they tried to disrupt the Finance Minister’s budget presentation, raising the demand for a resolution on creation of Telangana state.

The Telugu Desam Party members were on their feet at their respective seats shouting slogans lampooning the budget even as the minister went ahead with his address.

The Finance Minister projected the expected tax revenue during 2011-12 to be Rs 56,438 crore as against Rs 46,999 crore last year. Non-tax revenue is expected to be Rs 12,339 crore while Central funds are projected at Rs 32,218 crore, including the state share in Central taxes of Rs 16,826 crore.

The plan outlay for 2011-12 has been put at Rs 47,558 crore and non-plan outlay at Rs 80,984 crore.

“Our state economy is likely to grow by 8.89 per cent in the year 2010-11, notwithstanding the heavy rains and floods which have adversely impacted the farming and allied sectors. The Gross State Domestic Product at current prices is estimated at Rs 5.65 lakh crore while per capita income during 2010-11 is estimated at Rs 60,224,” the Finance Minister said in his budget speech.

Industrial sector in the state was expected to achieve a growth rate of 7.79 per cent while the services sector was expected to record a growth rate of 9.61 per cent, he said.

“The good growth in GSDP is also expected to translate into buoyant revenue collections in the coming year at approximately 20 per cent higher than the current budget. Our government is committed to continue all welfare programmes while equal emphasis has been laid on development programmes by continuing substantial allocations to infrastructure sectors like irrigation, roads, water supply and power,” Ramanarayana said.

The Finance Minister announced that the government would introduce a Comprehensive Financial Management System (CFMS) for providing a seamless interface with all stakeholders and putting in place an efficient mechanism of electronic information sharing with external stakeholders in budgeting and accounting processes. A sum of Rs 100 crore has been earmarked in the 2011-12 budget to implement the CFMS.

Ramanarayana Reddy sought to keep his fellow legislators in good humour by announcing that the Constituency Development Programme taken up with Rs 385 crore this year would be continued. Besides, he also announced the launch of a special fund for development and welfare activities with an outlay of Rs 400 crore.

TELANGANA: SHEER POWER GAME

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Forget development, forget discrimination.

It is only the “demand for greater political space” and the “aspiration for higher offices” that has actually fuelled the craving for creation of a separate Telangana state.

This was one of the significant findings of the five-member Justice Srikrishna Committee that studied the situation in Andhra Pradesh for over 11 months.

“Telangana as a region, notwithstanding some genuine grievances, is showing rapid development along most parameters. The regional sentiment for a separate state should thus be seen as a demand for greater political space, power and a stronger say in the affairs of the region and of the state,” the Srikrishna Committee observed in the chapter on “Sociological and Cultural Issues” in its report publicized yesterday.

“As the political space has expanded at various levels of governance, the aspiration for higher offices has grown. At a pragmatic level, a new state can often provide the fastest route to high political offices,” the Committee noted.

Stating that the Telangana groups have alleged “discrimination” in access to political power in the state, the Committee referred to their argument that several agreements and promises, including the Gentlemen’s Agreement signed during the formation of Andhra Pradesh, were not adhered to.

“Coastal Andhra had the maximum Chief Ministers (10) while CMs from Rayalaseema ruled the longest (23 years 9 months). Together, the Seema-Andhra region held the position of CM for 42 years while Telangana held it for only 10.5 years. Thus the combined domination of the Seema-Andhra region is apparent,” the Committee pointed out.

Telangana region has certainly had a much shorter span of holding the position of Chief Minister – which remains the all-powerful position in Indian states and this could be redressed to remove the sense of political alienation, it said.

Referring to the post of Deputy Chief Minister, which was also part of the Gentlemen’s Agreement, the Srikrishna Committee said: “Of a total of 16.5 years for which there was a Deputy CM in AP, the position was held for roughly 8 years by both sides. This is again a violation of the agreement as with the longer period of post of CM being held by Seema-Andhra side, there should have been concomitantly a longer period as Deputy CMs for the Telangana side.”

However, the Telangana side cannot claim total lack of representation as it held the key Home, Finance, Revenue and Irrigation portfolios for fairly long periods, the Committee pointed out.

“The Telangana protagonists argue that ministers from the region have been ‘weak’ and been ‘easily co-opted’ by the more powerful representatives from the ‘other side’. Hence, a separate state would separate them from these powerful representatives (from Seema-Andhra), allowing strong and independent leadership to emerge in Telangana,” the Committee added.

Analyzing the background of elected representatives, MPs and MLAs, the Committee noted that majority of political representatives from Seema-Andhra belonged to political-cum-business class while there was no such pattern in Telangana.

“An analysis of MPs elected in the 2009 election shows that compared to 92 per cent of Seema-Andhra MPs, only 35 per cent of those from Telangana had a political or business family background. Among the MLAs elected, while 63 per cent of the Seema-Andhra winners had a political family background, only 20 per cent of those from the Telangana region had such a background,” the Committee said.

The Committee concluded saying a separate state, however, might not necessarily assure guaranteed and automatic access to water, government jobs and education, as claimed and promised by Telangana leaders.

The Committee felt that the issue of sentiment has to be considered only as “one among several factors” to be evaluated.

“The field of development studies shows us that there is no magic formula for rapidly reducing socio-economic disparities which prevail within both large and small political units or within cultural regions; the redressing of such disparities is through a process of local struggles, state policy responses and many fortuitous circumstances,” it summed up.

"Balance tilting in favour of Andhra Pradesh not Telangana"

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: The five-member Justice Srikrishna Committee that studied the situation in Andhra Pradesh has concluded that the “balance was tilting” in favour of a united state vis-à-vis the demand for creation of separate Telangana.
“After considering all aspects, the Committee found the balance tilting in favour of keeping the (Andhra Pradesh) state united, though some valid and strong reasons that had continued to cause discontent in Telangana region since its merger indicated that the demand for separation was also not entirely unjustified,” the Committee said in its prologue to the 505-page report that was publicised today, even as it came out with six options on the statehood issue.
“The united Andhra option is being suggested for continuing the development momentum of the three regions and keeping in mind the national perspective,” the Committee pointed out, adding, “with firm political and administrative management it should be possible to convey conviction to the people that this option would be in the best interest of all and would provide satisfaction to the maximum number of people in the state. It would also take care of the uncertainty over the future of Hyderabad as a bustling educational, industrial and IT hub/destination.”
“Andhra Pradesh today stands as one of the front runners among the progressive states in the country. Indeed, it could arguably be said that this very progress has led Telangana to revive the demand for a separate state in order to gain greater political space and to bridge more rapidly the remaining, though diminishing, disparities,” the Committee observed.

2010: Annus Horribilis in AP's political history

Desaraju Surya
HYDERABAD: Year 2010 has been an Annus Horribilis in the political history of Andhra Pradesh.
The political chaos that actually began towards the end of year 2009 ran through the whole of 2010 and, in fact, might continue to prevail even in 2011.
While the prime reason for this seemingly prolonging turbulence is the demand for and against the bifurcation of the state, the internal strife in the ruling Congress party has also been a large contributing factor.
The agitations for and against the division of Andhra Pradesh, which began in December 2009 and spilled into the first half of 2010, not only paralysed the state administration but also left the main
political parties in shambles.
The happenings within the Congress also left AP in a state of political uncertainty through the year as the ruling party failed in many ways than one in managing its own affairs. Governance, as a
result, became the biggest casualty, leaving common citizens disillusioned.
Disarray will only be a mild word to describe the state of Congress as it was forced to replace a “non-effective” Chief Minister (K Rosaiah) on one hand and contend with the virtual rebellion caused by former MP from Kadapa Y S Jaganmohan Reddy on the other.
The current Chief Minister Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy is virtually counting his days at the helm of affairs as Jagan is waiting for the opportune moment to dislodge the state government, though for public consumption he has promised to let it continue till 2014.
Son of former Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, Jagan’s first rebellious act was embarking on the Odarpu Yatra for consoling families of persons who died of shock or committed suicide following
his father’s death.
Jagan, in fact, used the controversial yatra for a show of strength and building a base for himself across the state, particularly in the Andhra-Rayalaseema regions. The huge response to his road shows proved that Jagan not only succeeded in his plans but also compounded the woes of the beleaguered Congress.
By already attracting close to 30 MLAs, half-a-dozen MLCs and about five Lok Sabha MPs of the Congress to his side, upon his exit from the party, Jagan has already sounded the warning bell for the Kiran Kumar government.
Come 2011, Jagan will launch his own political outfit with the main objective of decimating the Congress, which he quit in December. This may actually see many “fence-sitters” in the Congress jump on to his bandwagon, endangering the survival of the Kiran government.
Jagan apart, the Congress also faces uncertainty from within as the Telangana protagonists in the party too have openly declared a war if statehood is not granted for their region.
The cracks along the regional lines in the Congress that began appearing in December 2009 only widened in 2010 as the high command remained apathetic to the developments in the party.
The principal opposition Telugu Desam Party is not in a comfortable position either. The TDP too is split on regional lines with the Telangana leaders favouring a separate state while those from
Andhra-Rayalaseema opposing it.
TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu is unable to take a clear stand on the state division issue and is closely monitoring the happenings in the Congress so that he could devise his party’s strategy.
Though initially there was hope in the TDP circles about the party’s prospects brightening in the wake of Jagan’s exit from the Congress, the complete rout it faced in the by-elections in July in Telangana
has indeed become a cause for concern. With the TDP still vacillating over its stand on the statehood issue, there is scant hope of revival in its fortunes in the Telangana region that was always considered its citadel.
The separatist Telangana Rashtra Samiti, on the other hand, is riding high on the “sentiment” wave following its spectacular showing in the by-elections where it won all the 11 seats it contested.
In fact, 2010 saw the TRS fighting a do-or-die battle to achieve its sole objective – securing statehood for Telangana. It has taken the battle, with the help of other separatist forces, almost to a decisive
stage this year, so much so that the political future of Andhra Pradesh now hinges on the outcome of this battle.
Year 2010 could well be a forgettable one for actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi as his two-year-old Praja Rajyam Party headed nowhere.

By vouching for a united state, Chiranjeevi antagonised people of Telangana, so much so that his party has been reduced to nothing in the region. After more than 10 months, however, he started attracting some of his fans from Telangana back to his fold for re-building the PRP. But the PRP also seems to be stuck in an existential dilemma. It has done no good for itself by hob-nobbing with the ruling Congress and in fact lost its credibility by showing a desperation to join the government. Chiranjeevi’s proposed re-entry into the tinsel world fuelled speculation that he might indeed merge his outfit with the Congress sooner of later.

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s future literally hangs in the balance in AP. As things stand, the national party’s only hope lies in the creation of Telangana state where it could at least try to regain past glory, being an aggressive supporter of the statehood demand. At the same time, the pro-Telangana stand could prove to be its nemesis in Andhra-Rayalaseema regions where it once enjoyed considerable clout.

As the year 2010 draws to a close, Telangana indeed holds the key to the fortunes of the two main political parties – Congress and TDP – in the state. But each will remain strong only in any one of the two regions in any eventuality. Of course, Jagan is waiting in the wings to play spoilsport.

“What if!” is a puzzle that all the parties are now busy trying to crack, marching into Year 2011.

What's in store for the Telugus?

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Every Telugu, residing not just in Andhra Pradesh but in any other part of the globe, is waiting with bated breath for the dusk of December 31. Not to bid adieu to Year 2010 or welcome 2011, but to know whether their state will remain Andhra Pradesh or get divided into Telangana and Andhra or anything else. December 31 is the “D-day” when the five-member Justice Srikrishna Committee, appointed by the Government of India on February 3 this year for consultations on the situation in Andhra Pradesh, submits its report after an extensive field work in the wake of the demand for and against the bifurcation of the state. Though the recommendations of the Committee are unlikely to be publicised the same day, every citizen of this state has come to see it as a landmark day that defines their future.

The Committee was appointed in the backdrop of the agitation for and against the bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh, when the demand for creation of a separate Telangana state reached a feverish pitch in late 2009. The Justice Srikrishna Committee was asked to examine, among other things, the situation in Andhra Pradesh with reference to the demand for a separate state of Telangana as well as the demand for maintaining the present status of a united Andhra Pradesh; to review the developments in the state since its formation and their impact on the progress and development of the different regions of the state; to identify the key issues that must be addressed by consulting all sections of the society, especially the political parties and seek from the political parties and other organisations a range of solutions that would resolve the present difficult situation and promote the welfare of all sections of the people. It was also asked to identify the “optimal solutions” for this purpose and recommend a plan of action and a road map.

The last months of year 2009 saw turbulence caused primarily by separatists seeking Telangana state while early 2010 witnessed a spontaneous movement by people of Andhra and Rayalaseema regions opposing the state’s division. This led to political disorder and public unrest in the state after the Congress’ flip-flop on “initiating the process for creation of Telangana.” Order was restored in the state to an extent only after the Srikrishna Committee was appointed to look into the statehood demand, a move seen as the Congress’ desperate gambit to undo the damage caused by its mishandling of the whole issue.

Though initially every political party reacted with scepticism to the Committee’s constitution, the common people welcomed it with the hope that it will come out with an everlasting solution to the contentious statehood issue. All political parties, barring the Bharatiya Janata Party, subsequently presented their case, for and against the division of the state, before the Committee while all other stakeholders too submitted their views on the issue. The Committee members – eminent and widely-respected in varied fields – toured almost every part of Andhra Pradesh in the last ten months, collected tonnes of data from different sources, interacted with people at the grassroots level and drafted a two-volume report. In doing so, they kept their promise of completing their task “within the set deadline.” Now, Justice Srikrishna and his four colleagues are about to submit the report to Union Home Minister P Chidambaram in New Delhi.

While holding a mirror to the past and the present of Andhra Pradesh since its formation on November 1, 1956, the Srikrishna Committee report should hold the beacon for its future as well.