The "secret" agenda of the Centre

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: The Government of India seems to be implementing, rather covertly, the ‘recommendations’ of the Justice Srikrishna Committee even as Andhra Pradesh remains on the boil over the contentious Telangana issue.

A close observation of the political developments in the last few days, read with the crucial three-page “secret supplementary note” handed over to the Union Home Ministry by the Committee, clearly points to a well-planned agenda being executed by the Congress party.

The supplementary note remained a “secret” till Justice L Narasimha Reddy made it public through his judgment on a writ petition filed by former MP M Narayan Reddy.

The secret supplementary note contained the “political management” plan recommended by the Committee to the Union Home Ministry, which is now supposedly being executed.

“There is a need for ensuring unity among the leaders of the ruling party in the state. There is also a need for providing strong and firm political leadership and placement of representatives of Telangana in key positions, may be CM/ Deputy CM (Since done. This aspect was discussed with FM & HM in September, 2010),” the secret note says.

This, of course, did not happen as the Committee presumed while submitting its report to the Centre. Though the Congress promised in December last to appoint a Telangana leader as Deputy Chief Minister, it is yet to be fulfilled because of internal differences within the party.
The Judge in his verdict pointed to this, and observed, “At a time when the Committee was giving final touches to its report, a new Chief Minister was sworn in with some changes in the Cabinet. There was a serious speculation and talk that a legislator from Telangana is going to be made the Deputy Chief Minister, so much so, his name was also announced from Delhi. The Committee appears to have proceeded as though the said legislator was sworn in as Deputy Chief Minister.”
The secret supplementary note reads:

“Action also needs to be initiated for softening the TRS to the extent possible, especially in the context of the fact that TRS has threatened to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31 and also initiate a “Maha Yuddham’ (a massive war) if the Centre does not announce a Separate Telangana.

Gaddar’s TPF (Telangana Praja Front) who had parted company with TRS have again joined hands with TRS.
Inputs indicate that this agitation can be tackled if Congress leaders do not give an impression indicating any covert/overt support to it.
Hence the Congress MPs/MLAs need to be taken into confidence and asked not to lend any form of support to the agitation. The Congress high command must sensitize its own MPs and MLAs and educate them about the wisdom for arriving at an acceptable and workable solution.
With the ruling party and main opposition party (for Telangana demand) being brought on the same page, the support mechanisms have a higher probability of becoming successful.”

While the Centre or the Congress could not fully succeed in “softening” the TRS, the party succeeded to a large extent in silencing its Telangana MPs and MLAs though one or two MPs like K Keshava Rao and Madhu Yashki Goud continue to make noises over the issue.
Justice Narasimha Reddy observed: “That the Committee travelled beyond the terms of reference in its endeavour to persuade the Union of India, not to accede to the demand for Telangana, is demonstrated in the supplementary note, appended to the note, representing Chapter-VIII. The Committee comprised two jurists, two social scientists and an ex-bureaucrat to study the situation and submit report covering legal and social dimensions of the issue. None of them were supposed to have any political leanings, or for that matter, political tendencies. Unfortunately, the portion extracted above makes one to feel whether it fits into any Terms of Reference to the Committee at all.”
“The above analysis would find even political scientists and sociologists in wilderness and persuade them to add new chapters to political sciences and public administration. None of these aspects could have been put on paper by a given ruling party, even if it is desperate. Still you do not have a basis for this exercise. It does not even reflect political expediency. At the most it manifests political despondency,” the Judge commented.
The Committee’s note also said: “Further, on receipt of the Committee’s report by the government, a general message should be conveyed amongst the people of the state that the Centre will be open for detailed discussions on the recommendations/options of the report with the leaders/stakeholders concerned either directly or through a Group of Ministers or through important interlocutors and that this process will start at the earliest.”

Close to three months have elapsed since the full report was submitted to the Central government but this process hasn’t begun yet, leaving Andhra Pradesh in a state of gross uncertainty.

KIRAN KUMAR: 100* ..... FOR NOW!

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy today completed his first 100 days in office as Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister but his performance report card reads zero.

The Congress high command overnight replaced K Rosaiah with Kiran Kumar as Chief Minister on November 25 last year in the wake of a deepening crisis within the party.

He was supposed to be the ruling Congress’ trouble-shooter at a time when the party was faced with rebellion from former MP Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and the turmoil over the statehood issue.

The turbulence over the statehood issue continues unabated on one hand while the Jagan’s shadow also haunts the Chief Minister, leaving him on a shaky wicket.

Will the cricketer-turned-politician hit another century or be bowled out is a big question that hangs on everyone’s mind in the state now.

Governance has been largely paralysed in the past three months because of the prevailing political uncertainty. The ongoing agitations for Telangana, particularly the non-cooperation movement by government employees, have only compounded the woes of people.

Kiran's lack of administrative experience is having a telling impact on governance in the state while his "I know everything" attitude is not going down well with anyone, including his Cabinet colleagues.

“Governance has become the biggest casualty in the state. In fact, people are left to wonder if there is a government in the state at all,” TDP politburo member Yanamala Ramakrishnudu observed.

Even other opposition parties like BJP, CPI and CPM too have decried the “lack of governance” in the state and held, apart from the Chief Minister, the Central government and Congress responsible for the sorry state of affairs.

“There are many speed-breakers in my path (in the last 100 days). But everything will become smooth in the next three to six months,” Kiran remarked, when asked about his experiences as Chief Minister so far.

He was also confident that his government would not only last till 2014 but also retain power thereafter.

Will Jagan let Kiran's dream come true? Obviously not, as waiting for three more years (for the CM's chair) will be politically suicidal for Jagan.

The immediate challenge for Kiran will be securing victory for the Congress in the ensuing by-elections to Kadapa Lok Sabha and Pulivendula Assembly constituencies vacated by Jagan and his mother Vijaya Lakshmi respectively. Election to a lone seat for the Legislative Council from the Kadapa Local Authorities Constituency is also due this month and a defeat for Congress here will sound the first warning bell for Kiran Kumar.

Of the nine Congress MLAs in Kadapa district, five are sailing with Jagan while, the three ministers apart, only one legislator in still in the party.

Jagan is sure to upset the Congress’ applecart if the party fails to win the elections in Kadapa and this could spell doom for the Kiran Kumar government, political observers aver.

The upcoming merger of Praja Rajyam Party with the Congress may not do any good to the government if the Jagan trouble and the Telangana strife persist.

Trouble began for Kiran the very day he installed his Council of Ministers with most of them protesting the allocation of “insignificant” portfolios on December 1. Though they fell in line within 24 hours upon the intervention of the high command, many of them are still nursing a grudge against the Chief Minister. In fact, ministers like Botsa Satyanarayana have off and on been leaving the Chief Minister embarrassed by raising their voice publicly on contentious issues like BC reservations, prices, etc.

Ministers from Telangana, on the other hand, have virtually kept the government on notice saying they would quit anytime if a separate state is not created. In fact, one minister Jupalli Krishna Rao shot off a letter to Sonia Gandhi saying he would resign from his post if a Bill for creation of Telangana is not tabled in Parliament in the ongoing Budget session.

Other ministers from the region like Basavaraj Saraiah and Komatireddy Venkat Reddy too had announced they would follow suit while a couple of others have been speaking in private about this possibility.

Majority of the MLAs from Telangana too are getting ready to “sacrifice” their posts for the cause of a separate state, leaving the ruling party worrisome.

A make-believe budget for Andhra Pradesh

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Seeking to hide the real picture of the state’s precarious finances, Andhra Pradesh Finance Minister Aanam Ramanarayana Reddy presented yet another grandiose budget of Rs 1,28,542 crore for the 2011-12 financial year, projecting a revenue surplus of Rs 3,826 crore and a fiscal deficit of Rs 17,602 crore.

Neither were any state taxes enhanced nor any new schemes announced in the budget which was about Rs 15,000 crore more than last year’s estimate of Rs 1.13 lakh crore. This is the fourth consecutive year that the state’s budget has been pegged at over Rs one lakh crore, despite the actual realizations falling way short of the projections.

For a state that is virtually in penury because of various factors, including political turmoil, a budget of this size has raised many an eyebrow with the opposition terming it as “unjustified.”

Of the total projected expenditure in the ensuing fiscal, more than Rs 20,000 crore will go towards clearing old arrears for various schemes even as the state’s public debt shot up to Rs 1.41 lakh crore from 1.23 lakh crore last year. This is 23.62 per cent of the Gross State Domestic Product.

This was Ramanarayana Reddy’s maiden budget, which he presented at 11.43 am at the auspicious muhurtam set for the occasion, but amidst a din created by opposition members. Eleven MLAs belonging to TRS (6), CPI (4) and BJP (1) were suspended from the House for the day as they tried to disrupt the Finance Minister’s budget presentation, raising the demand for a resolution on creation of Telangana state.

The Telugu Desam Party members were on their feet at their respective seats shouting slogans lampooning the budget even as the minister went ahead with his address.

The Finance Minister projected the expected tax revenue during 2011-12 to be Rs 56,438 crore as against Rs 46,999 crore last year. Non-tax revenue is expected to be Rs 12,339 crore while Central funds are projected at Rs 32,218 crore, including the state share in Central taxes of Rs 16,826 crore.

The plan outlay for 2011-12 has been put at Rs 47,558 crore and non-plan outlay at Rs 80,984 crore.

“Our state economy is likely to grow by 8.89 per cent in the year 2010-11, notwithstanding the heavy rains and floods which have adversely impacted the farming and allied sectors. The Gross State Domestic Product at current prices is estimated at Rs 5.65 lakh crore while per capita income during 2010-11 is estimated at Rs 60,224,” the Finance Minister said in his budget speech.

Industrial sector in the state was expected to achieve a growth rate of 7.79 per cent while the services sector was expected to record a growth rate of 9.61 per cent, he said.

“The good growth in GSDP is also expected to translate into buoyant revenue collections in the coming year at approximately 20 per cent higher than the current budget. Our government is committed to continue all welfare programmes while equal emphasis has been laid on development programmes by continuing substantial allocations to infrastructure sectors like irrigation, roads, water supply and power,” Ramanarayana said.

The Finance Minister announced that the government would introduce a Comprehensive Financial Management System (CFMS) for providing a seamless interface with all stakeholders and putting in place an efficient mechanism of electronic information sharing with external stakeholders in budgeting and accounting processes. A sum of Rs 100 crore has been earmarked in the 2011-12 budget to implement the CFMS.

Ramanarayana Reddy sought to keep his fellow legislators in good humour by announcing that the Constituency Development Programme taken up with Rs 385 crore this year would be continued. Besides, he also announced the launch of a special fund for development and welfare activities with an outlay of Rs 400 crore.

TELANGANA: SHEER POWER GAME

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Forget development, forget discrimination.

It is only the “demand for greater political space” and the “aspiration for higher offices” that has actually fuelled the craving for creation of a separate Telangana state.

This was one of the significant findings of the five-member Justice Srikrishna Committee that studied the situation in Andhra Pradesh for over 11 months.

“Telangana as a region, notwithstanding some genuine grievances, is showing rapid development along most parameters. The regional sentiment for a separate state should thus be seen as a demand for greater political space, power and a stronger say in the affairs of the region and of the state,” the Srikrishna Committee observed in the chapter on “Sociological and Cultural Issues” in its report publicized yesterday.

“As the political space has expanded at various levels of governance, the aspiration for higher offices has grown. At a pragmatic level, a new state can often provide the fastest route to high political offices,” the Committee noted.

Stating that the Telangana groups have alleged “discrimination” in access to political power in the state, the Committee referred to their argument that several agreements and promises, including the Gentlemen’s Agreement signed during the formation of Andhra Pradesh, were not adhered to.

“Coastal Andhra had the maximum Chief Ministers (10) while CMs from Rayalaseema ruled the longest (23 years 9 months). Together, the Seema-Andhra region held the position of CM for 42 years while Telangana held it for only 10.5 years. Thus the combined domination of the Seema-Andhra region is apparent,” the Committee pointed out.

Telangana region has certainly had a much shorter span of holding the position of Chief Minister – which remains the all-powerful position in Indian states and this could be redressed to remove the sense of political alienation, it said.

Referring to the post of Deputy Chief Minister, which was also part of the Gentlemen’s Agreement, the Srikrishna Committee said: “Of a total of 16.5 years for which there was a Deputy CM in AP, the position was held for roughly 8 years by both sides. This is again a violation of the agreement as with the longer period of post of CM being held by Seema-Andhra side, there should have been concomitantly a longer period as Deputy CMs for the Telangana side.”

However, the Telangana side cannot claim total lack of representation as it held the key Home, Finance, Revenue and Irrigation portfolios for fairly long periods, the Committee pointed out.

“The Telangana protagonists argue that ministers from the region have been ‘weak’ and been ‘easily co-opted’ by the more powerful representatives from the ‘other side’. Hence, a separate state would separate them from these powerful representatives (from Seema-Andhra), allowing strong and independent leadership to emerge in Telangana,” the Committee added.

Analyzing the background of elected representatives, MPs and MLAs, the Committee noted that majority of political representatives from Seema-Andhra belonged to political-cum-business class while there was no such pattern in Telangana.

“An analysis of MPs elected in the 2009 election shows that compared to 92 per cent of Seema-Andhra MPs, only 35 per cent of those from Telangana had a political or business family background. Among the MLAs elected, while 63 per cent of the Seema-Andhra winners had a political family background, only 20 per cent of those from the Telangana region had such a background,” the Committee said.

The Committee concluded saying a separate state, however, might not necessarily assure guaranteed and automatic access to water, government jobs and education, as claimed and promised by Telangana leaders.

The Committee felt that the issue of sentiment has to be considered only as “one among several factors” to be evaluated.

“The field of development studies shows us that there is no magic formula for rapidly reducing socio-economic disparities which prevail within both large and small political units or within cultural regions; the redressing of such disparities is through a process of local struggles, state policy responses and many fortuitous circumstances,” it summed up.

"Balance tilting in favour of Andhra Pradesh not Telangana"

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: The five-member Justice Srikrishna Committee that studied the situation in Andhra Pradesh has concluded that the “balance was tilting” in favour of a united state vis-à-vis the demand for creation of separate Telangana.
“After considering all aspects, the Committee found the balance tilting in favour of keeping the (Andhra Pradesh) state united, though some valid and strong reasons that had continued to cause discontent in Telangana region since its merger indicated that the demand for separation was also not entirely unjustified,” the Committee said in its prologue to the 505-page report that was publicised today, even as it came out with six options on the statehood issue.
“The united Andhra option is being suggested for continuing the development momentum of the three regions and keeping in mind the national perspective,” the Committee pointed out, adding, “with firm political and administrative management it should be possible to convey conviction to the people that this option would be in the best interest of all and would provide satisfaction to the maximum number of people in the state. It would also take care of the uncertainty over the future of Hyderabad as a bustling educational, industrial and IT hub/destination.”
“Andhra Pradesh today stands as one of the front runners among the progressive states in the country. Indeed, it could arguably be said that this very progress has led Telangana to revive the demand for a separate state in order to gain greater political space and to bridge more rapidly the remaining, though diminishing, disparities,” the Committee observed.