Test of Jagan's political might

Desaraju Surya
Hyderabad: The time has come for "rebel leader" Y S Jaganmohan Reddy to prove his political might.
The Election Commission has set May 8 as the date for his first political battle as an independent leader.
For Jagan, who got elected to Lok Sabha on his political arangetram in 2009 as Congress candidate from Kadapa constituency, the very party is now the main rival.
Son of late Chief Minister Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, the industrialist-turned-politician quit the Congress as well as his Lok Sabha seat on November 29 last alleging that the party "humiliated" his family. His mother Vijayalakshmi too followed him and resigned from her Pulivendula MLA seat, causing the by-election in the two segments.
Political observers feel that a good show by Jagan in the by-elections will spell trouble for Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy as the rebel leader will try to go for the kill with the help of MLAs loyal to him.

When he quit the Congress in November last, Jagan’s group claimed he enjoyed the support of at least 36 MLAs in the 294-member AP Assembly, a number good enough to dislodge the Kiran Kumar Reddy government. Just a few days later, he claimed during an agitation programme in New Delhi that the Kiran Kumar government was surviving only “at my mercy.”

“I am doing a favour to the Congress by not pulling down its government in Andhra Pradesh,” he had claimed and maintained that he would let it continue its full term till 2014 as it came to power only because of his late father.

Political analysts are, however, unwilling to take Jagan’s claims on face value as they aver that he would not be so “politically imprudent” to wait on the sidelines for another three years.

As things stand, Jagan seems to be enjoying clear support of just a dozen Congress MLAs besides two each of Praja Rajyam Party and Telugu Desam. There, of course, are some fence-sitters who may jump the wall any way depending on the circumstances.

Jagan was to set up his "own party" but technical glitches spoiled his plans as an outfit by the name "YSR Congress" was already registered with the Election Commission. With no other option in sight, Jagan promptly joined the YSR Congress as an ordinary member and got "elected" as its president last month. He then announced the name of "his" party at a public meeting in Jaggampet in East Godavari district and followed it up with the unveiling of its tri-coloured flag on March 12 at his father's grave at Rajiv Knowledge Valley in Kadapa district.
For all practical purposes Jagan could not "formally launch" his political party as the model code of conduct was in place for the elections to Andhra Pradesh Legislative Council. He can't do it now either as the code remains in place for the by-elections as well.

Nevertheless, he will contest the by-election from Kadapa Lok Sabha constituency as YSR Congress party candidate and his mother Vijayalakshmi will be the party nominee from Pulivendula Assembly segment.

Jagan gave a shocker to the ruling party winning three of the nine Legislative Council seats in the recent elections from the Local Authorities Constituencies while marring its chances in two other. In fact, Congress MLAs loyal to him virtually defeated the ruling party’s nominee for the Council election from the Assembly quota on March 17 by voting in favour of Majlis party candidate, though he too was supported by the Congress.

Now, Jagan’s strength will be put to real test in the by-elections in his own fiefdom. The contest will be as much on YSR’s political legacy as well as on Jagan’s leadership while the sympathy factor too will come into play.

The "secret" agenda of the Centre

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: The Government of India seems to be implementing, rather covertly, the ‘recommendations’ of the Justice Srikrishna Committee even as Andhra Pradesh remains on the boil over the contentious Telangana issue.

A close observation of the political developments in the last few days, read with the crucial three-page “secret supplementary note” handed over to the Union Home Ministry by the Committee, clearly points to a well-planned agenda being executed by the Congress party.

The supplementary note remained a “secret” till Justice L Narasimha Reddy made it public through his judgment on a writ petition filed by former MP M Narayan Reddy.

The secret supplementary note contained the “political management” plan recommended by the Committee to the Union Home Ministry, which is now supposedly being executed.

“There is a need for ensuring unity among the leaders of the ruling party in the state. There is also a need for providing strong and firm political leadership and placement of representatives of Telangana in key positions, may be CM/ Deputy CM (Since done. This aspect was discussed with FM & HM in September, 2010),” the secret note says.

This, of course, did not happen as the Committee presumed while submitting its report to the Centre. Though the Congress promised in December last to appoint a Telangana leader as Deputy Chief Minister, it is yet to be fulfilled because of internal differences within the party.
The Judge in his verdict pointed to this, and observed, “At a time when the Committee was giving final touches to its report, a new Chief Minister was sworn in with some changes in the Cabinet. There was a serious speculation and talk that a legislator from Telangana is going to be made the Deputy Chief Minister, so much so, his name was also announced from Delhi. The Committee appears to have proceeded as though the said legislator was sworn in as Deputy Chief Minister.”
The secret supplementary note reads:

“Action also needs to be initiated for softening the TRS to the extent possible, especially in the context of the fact that TRS has threatened to launch a civil disobedience movement after December 31 and also initiate a “Maha Yuddham’ (a massive war) if the Centre does not announce a Separate Telangana.

Gaddar’s TPF (Telangana Praja Front) who had parted company with TRS have again joined hands with TRS.
Inputs indicate that this agitation can be tackled if Congress leaders do not give an impression indicating any covert/overt support to it.
Hence the Congress MPs/MLAs need to be taken into confidence and asked not to lend any form of support to the agitation. The Congress high command must sensitize its own MPs and MLAs and educate them about the wisdom for arriving at an acceptable and workable solution.
With the ruling party and main opposition party (for Telangana demand) being brought on the same page, the support mechanisms have a higher probability of becoming successful.”

While the Centre or the Congress could not fully succeed in “softening” the TRS, the party succeeded to a large extent in silencing its Telangana MPs and MLAs though one or two MPs like K Keshava Rao and Madhu Yashki Goud continue to make noises over the issue.
Justice Narasimha Reddy observed: “That the Committee travelled beyond the terms of reference in its endeavour to persuade the Union of India, not to accede to the demand for Telangana, is demonstrated in the supplementary note, appended to the note, representing Chapter-VIII. The Committee comprised two jurists, two social scientists and an ex-bureaucrat to study the situation and submit report covering legal and social dimensions of the issue. None of them were supposed to have any political leanings, or for that matter, political tendencies. Unfortunately, the portion extracted above makes one to feel whether it fits into any Terms of Reference to the Committee at all.”
“The above analysis would find even political scientists and sociologists in wilderness and persuade them to add new chapters to political sciences and public administration. None of these aspects could have been put on paper by a given ruling party, even if it is desperate. Still you do not have a basis for this exercise. It does not even reflect political expediency. At the most it manifests political despondency,” the Judge commented.
The Committee’s note also said: “Further, on receipt of the Committee’s report by the government, a general message should be conveyed amongst the people of the state that the Centre will be open for detailed discussions on the recommendations/options of the report with the leaders/stakeholders concerned either directly or through a Group of Ministers or through important interlocutors and that this process will start at the earliest.”

Close to three months have elapsed since the full report was submitted to the Central government but this process hasn’t begun yet, leaving Andhra Pradesh in a state of gross uncertainty.

KIRAN KUMAR: 100* ..... FOR NOW!

Desaraju Surya

Hyderabad: Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy today completed his first 100 days in office as Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister but his performance report card reads zero.

The Congress high command overnight replaced K Rosaiah with Kiran Kumar as Chief Minister on November 25 last year in the wake of a deepening crisis within the party.

He was supposed to be the ruling Congress’ trouble-shooter at a time when the party was faced with rebellion from former MP Y S Jaganmohan Reddy and the turmoil over the statehood issue.

The turbulence over the statehood issue continues unabated on one hand while the Jagan’s shadow also haunts the Chief Minister, leaving him on a shaky wicket.

Will the cricketer-turned-politician hit another century or be bowled out is a big question that hangs on everyone’s mind in the state now.

Governance has been largely paralysed in the past three months because of the prevailing political uncertainty. The ongoing agitations for Telangana, particularly the non-cooperation movement by government employees, have only compounded the woes of people.

Kiran's lack of administrative experience is having a telling impact on governance in the state while his "I know everything" attitude is not going down well with anyone, including his Cabinet colleagues.

“Governance has become the biggest casualty in the state. In fact, people are left to wonder if there is a government in the state at all,” TDP politburo member Yanamala Ramakrishnudu observed.

Even other opposition parties like BJP, CPI and CPM too have decried the “lack of governance” in the state and held, apart from the Chief Minister, the Central government and Congress responsible for the sorry state of affairs.

“There are many speed-breakers in my path (in the last 100 days). But everything will become smooth in the next three to six months,” Kiran remarked, when asked about his experiences as Chief Minister so far.

He was also confident that his government would not only last till 2014 but also retain power thereafter.

Will Jagan let Kiran's dream come true? Obviously not, as waiting for three more years (for the CM's chair) will be politically suicidal for Jagan.

The immediate challenge for Kiran will be securing victory for the Congress in the ensuing by-elections to Kadapa Lok Sabha and Pulivendula Assembly constituencies vacated by Jagan and his mother Vijaya Lakshmi respectively. Election to a lone seat for the Legislative Council from the Kadapa Local Authorities Constituency is also due this month and a defeat for Congress here will sound the first warning bell for Kiran Kumar.

Of the nine Congress MLAs in Kadapa district, five are sailing with Jagan while, the three ministers apart, only one legislator in still in the party.

Jagan is sure to upset the Congress’ applecart if the party fails to win the elections in Kadapa and this could spell doom for the Kiran Kumar government, political observers aver.

The upcoming merger of Praja Rajyam Party with the Congress may not do any good to the government if the Jagan trouble and the Telangana strife persist.

Trouble began for Kiran the very day he installed his Council of Ministers with most of them protesting the allocation of “insignificant” portfolios on December 1. Though they fell in line within 24 hours upon the intervention of the high command, many of them are still nursing a grudge against the Chief Minister. In fact, ministers like Botsa Satyanarayana have off and on been leaving the Chief Minister embarrassed by raising their voice publicly on contentious issues like BC reservations, prices, etc.

Ministers from Telangana, on the other hand, have virtually kept the government on notice saying they would quit anytime if a separate state is not created. In fact, one minister Jupalli Krishna Rao shot off a letter to Sonia Gandhi saying he would resign from his post if a Bill for creation of Telangana is not tabled in Parliament in the ongoing Budget session.

Other ministers from the region like Basavaraj Saraiah and Komatireddy Venkat Reddy too had announced they would follow suit while a couple of others have been speaking in private about this possibility.

Majority of the MLAs from Telangana too are getting ready to “sacrifice” their posts for the cause of a separate state, leaving the ruling party worrisome.